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The Moore's Law of solar energy
This article was originally posted at Scientific American. It's reprinted with
permission.
The sun strikes every square meter of our planet with more than 1,360 watts of power. Half
of that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected back into space. Seven hundred
watts of power, on average, reaches Earth's surface. Summed across the half of the
Earth that the sun is shining on, that is 89 petawatts of power. By comparison, all of
human civilization uses around 15 terrawatts of power, or one six-thousandth as much. In
14 and a half seconds, the sun provides as much energy to Earth as humanity uses in a
day.
The numbers are staggering and surprising. In 88 minutes, the sun provides 470 exajoules
of energy, as much energy as humanity consumes in a year. In 112 hours — less than five
days — it provides 36 zettajoules of energy - as much energy as is contained in all proven
reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas on this planet.
If humanity could capture one tenth of one percent of the solar energy striking the Earth
— one part in one thousand — we would have access to six times as much energy as we
consume in all forms today, with almost no greenhouse gas emissions. At the current rate
of energy consumption increase — about 1 percent per year — we will not be using that much
energy for another 180 years.
It's small wonder, then, that scientists and entrepreneurs alike are investing in
solar energy technologies to capture some of the abundant power around us. Yet solar power
is still a minuscule fraction of all power generation capacity on the planet. There is at
most 30 gigawatts of solar generating capacity deployed today, or about 0.2 percent of all
energy production. Up until now, while solar energy has been abundant, the systems to
capture it have been expensive and inefficient.
That is changing. Over the last 30 years, researchers have watched as the price of
capturing solar energy has dropped exponentially. There's now frequent talk of a
"Moore's law" in solar energy. In computing, Moore's law dictates that
the number of components that can be placed on a chip doubles every 18 months. More
practically speaking, the amount of computing power you can buy for a dollar has roughly
doubled every 18 months, for decades. That's the reason that the phone in your pocket
has thousands of times as much memory and ten times as much processing...
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